Power, People, and the Political: Understanding the Many Crises in Belarus

Abstract The many recent crises in Belarus are often seen through the prism of democratization, post-communist transition, and nation- identity-building. As a rule, it is put into context 1989 democratization Central Eastern Europe compared with similar societal mobilization Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004; 2014), Kyrgyzstan (2005). This article, however, argues that while these theoretical approaches provide an important explanatory potential, they nevertheless fail to account for informal, hidden, unstable processes presently unfolding Belarusian society, leading profound change. We argue that, vulnerable, unpredictable, complex, ambiguous (VUCA) world today, our knowledge ability plan achieve desirable outcomes limited contrast largely positivist or interpretivist epistemology mainstream theories, which conceive as closed system. In this we offer alternative explanation by drawing on insights complexity-thinking suggest (hidden) transformative change country now irreversible.